Can this home price trend predict the next NFL Champion? Updated on:
- Introduction
- AFC 1 seed
- AFC 2 seed
- AFC 3 seed
- AFC 4 seed
- AFC 5 seed
- AFC 6 seed
- AFC 7 seed
- NFC 1 seed
- NFC 2 seed
- NFC 3 seed
- NFC 4 seed
- NFC 5 seed
- NFC 6 seed
- NFC 7 seed
- Bracket
- Sources
It’s that time again -- the start of a new year, snow storms, colder temperatures and the NFL playoffs. This year’s playoff teams are from a very diverse group of housing markets from all across the country.
There are an untold number of oddsmakers and prognosticators that purport to be able to pick the ultimate winner of the NFL's highest prize. But is there any specific relationship between home prices, mortgage rates and success in the NFL? Of course not. However, it's fun to forecast the winner of Super Bowl LIX based off certain housing market characteristics.
We first did this way back in 2013. Back then, we picked the Super Bowl winner based on which market had the highest average mortgage rates. Based on that criteria, our pick (the Seattle Seahawks) took home the Lombardi trophy. In 2014, we selected our winner based the metropolitan area market with the highest home prices in each head-to-head matchup. Ultimately, this predicted that New England would be the winner... which turned out to be correct, too! We then skipped a few years, then took another crack at it in the 2017-2018 season, when we incorporated the wild-card games, too.
At that time, we also changed up the methodology, too. For the 2018 playoffs, we employed third quarter 2016 to third quarter 2017 home price appreciation for existing single-family homes as a reference, swapping criteria from round to round.
Back in 2018, we started by selecting the winners of the Wildcard round by choosing markets which had higher home price appreciation over the last four quarters; for the Divisional round, we then choose markets with the lower year-over-year appreciation. For the Conference Championship round, we switched back to higher and will then picked the market with the lowest annual appreciation as the Super Bowl winner.
For the 2023-2024 playoffs, we reversed the above criteria, using a Lowest, Highest, Lowest, Highest cadence to determine the Lombardi Trophy winner. While the team the model picked didn't win, the winner did come from the AFC (which the model did pick) and the remaining team with the highest home price appreciation over the last year, so that's something.
Just to keep things interesting, we're going back to a more traditional, best-appreciation, winner-takes-all model this year, but if we employ the same back-and-forth arrangement as in 2023-2024, the low-high-low-high survivors making it to the big game are AFC #6 Pittsburgh versus NFC #5 Minneapolis, with Pittsburgh winning it all. Using the prior high-low-high-low method of selection? AFC #3 Baltimore takes the prize over NFC #2 Philadelphia.
For the 2024-2025 season, we'll consider the probable winner based solely on year-over-year home price appreciation from 3Q2023 to 3Q2024. Should the highest appreciation markets make it to the big game, the matchup would see the NFC #1 Detroit Lions facing the AFC #3 Buffalo Bills. Neither team has won a Super Bowl, but both won championships before the Super Bowl era. Still, Buffalo hasn't been to the big game in 31 years, and Detroit has never even been to one. If the matchup comes true, it'll be a game for the ages, and no matter who wins, it'll be history and redemption for a long-suffering franchise. Based upon our methodology this year, that'll be Buffalo.
As a matter of curiosity, if the matchup pitted lowest appreciation against lowest appreciation? Well, you would be looking at AFC #7 Denver versus NFC #3 Tampa Bay, with the Broncos taking all by virtue of a 2.7% home price decline over the last four quarters. Tampa Bay's home prices only slid by 1.2% over that period.
After each week's games are complete, we'll post a brief update here and on the slides for each team.
January 14, 2025 update:
Our highest-home-price-appreciation-wins-out methodology picked five winners out of the first six games, including a road team victory. Home field advantage matters in the playoffs, and four of the first five games were won by the home squad, with only the Washington Commanders as road warriors. What should have been a home game for the Rams was a neutral site affair due to the wildfire tragedy in Los Angeles, but the Rams settled in as though it was still in Inglewood before a home crowd.
- Median-home price: $341,600
- Price increase,3Q23 to 3Q24: 3.90%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 66.6 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $88,865.57
- Average ticket cost: $131.81
- Stadium name: Arrowhead Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2023 season
- Current odds 1/6/24 - 3.6 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 3.5 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Houston Texans.
- Median-home price: $283,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 8.80%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 61.1 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $82,090.25
- Average ticket cost: $101.64
- Stadium name: Highmark Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1993 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 6 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 5.5 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Baltimore Ravens.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. After Denver opened the scoring in the first quarter, it was all Buffalo the rest of the way. Josh Allen and the Bills offense had a solid day, outgaining the Broncos nearly two-to-one, and Allen threw for two scores and James Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. The housing market with the highest appreciation crushed the metro with the lowest, as this year's methodology predicted.
- Median-home price: $426,600
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 69.0 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $111,062.16
- Average ticket cost: $120.27
- Stadium name: M&T Bank Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2012 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 7 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 4.7 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Buffalo Bills.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. Baltimore came ready to play, putting up 21 points in the first half while blanking the Steelers. While QB Lamar Jackson had an efficient day, completing 16 of 21 passes and two TDs, Derrick Henry showed why the running game still matters, with his 26 carries good for 186 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh got two touchdown passes from Russell Wilson in the third quarter to make a bit of a game of it for a time.
- Median-home price: $324,800
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 0.80%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 61.1 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $99,375.91
- Average ticket cost: $117.45
- Stadium name: NRG Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: Never
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 50 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Kansas City Chiefs.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. Los Angeles got the first scores of the game and led 6-0 after the first quarter on two field goals. After that, balanced contributions powered the Texans ahead for good, as C.J. Stroud threw a touchdown pass, running back Joe Mixon powered his way to 106 yards and a score, and Ka'imi Fairburn kicked three field goals. In our "highest appreciation wins out" method of selection this year, this was the only upset of Wildcard weekend, a Houston's 0.8% home price increase bested L.A.'s. 5.60%.
- Median-home price: $947,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 49.2 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $229,559.81
- Average ticket cost: $106.23
- Stadium name: SoFi Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1994
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. Quarterback Justin Herbert had a rough day of it, throwing four interceptions and just a lone touchdown. Trying to play catch-up to Houston for the entire second half meant little support from the running game, and Ladd McConkey caught nine passes for 197 of Herbert's 242 for the day. The Chargers' 20th ranked offense couldn't overcome Houston's 6th ranked defense, so it was the end of the season for L.A.
- Median-home price: $239,400
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 3.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 67.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $65,484.18
- Average ticket cost: $127.01
- Stadium name: Acrisure Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. It's usually a bad idea to get started late against a team like the Ravens, and Pittsburgh didn't get much going until after halftime. By them, the Steelers were down 21-0, and Russell Wilson's two TDs in the third quarter weren't enough to catch up. For the Steelers, it's one and done, and wait till next year.
- Median-home price: $654,600
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: -2.70%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 64.8 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $158,112.13
- Average ticket cost: $131.91
- Stadium name: Empower Field at Mile High
- Last time in playoffs: 2015 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2015
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. At least according to our "highest appreciation wins out" method for this year's playoffs, Denver's -2.7% over the past four quarters gave them the least chance of all the metros. Up against Buffalo's playoff-leading 8.8%, that was more than the case, Denver only managed 7 points, the fewest of any Wildcard weekend team, and lost by 24 points, the largest margin of defeat.
- Median-home price: $287,800
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 8.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 71.8 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $77,398.06
- Average ticket cost: $107.31
- Stadium name: Ford Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: Never*
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 3.1 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 3 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Washington Commanders.
* Won Championship in pre Super Bowl era.
- Median-home price: $390,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 6.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 69.4 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $108,084.39
- Average ticket cost: $139.01
- Stadium name: Lincoln Financial Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2022
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 7.5 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 4.5 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Los Angeles Rams.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. The Eagles jumped out to an early lead and were up 10-zip by the end of the first half. Coming back from missing three weeks, Philly QB Jalen Hurts had a quiet day but threw for two TDs, and RB Saquon Barkley ran for 119 yards on 25 carries. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love threw for three INTs and no touchdowns, but it was still a one-score game early in the fourth quarter, but two Philly field goals secured the win.
- Median-home price: $410,000
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: -1.20%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 70.4 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $105,450.33
- Average ticket cost: $124.43
- Stadium name: Raymond James Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl winner: 2020 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 22 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. It was the most competitive game of Wildcard weekend, tied at the half and back and forth until a time-running-out field goal by Zane Gonzales won it for Washington as the clock expired. Rookie Jayden Daniels had a good day, throwing 35 times and completing 24 for 286 yards and two TDS, besting Baker Mayfield's solid 15 for 18, 2 TD effort.
- Median-home price: $947,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 49.2 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $229,559.81
- Average ticket cost: $103.90
- Stadium name: SoFi Stadium*
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2021
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 35 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Philadelphia Eagles.
1/14/25 update: Moving on. Matthew Stafford and the Rams may have been dislocated from their home base and fans, but came ready to play despite likely heavy hearts and worries for their home city. Rushing out to a 24-3 lead at the half forced the Vikings to play catch-up, and that didn't happen. The Vikings had an ineffective night against a solid Rams defense, which sacked QB Sam Darnold nine times, intercepted him once and cause him to fumble for a loss of possession, too.
*Wildcard weekend game moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
- Median-home price: $393,400
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 1.40%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 67.6 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $104,152.79
- Average ticket cost: $123.37
- Stadium name: U.S. Bank Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1976
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 14 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 15 to 1
1/14/25 update: Eliminated. Viking quarterback Sam Darnold struggled all night, was sacked nine times, intercepted once and fumbled for a loss of possession. That's usually more than enough to ensure a loss, and a loss it was, with the Vikings managing just a field goal and lone touchdown all night. The Rams didn't exactly run roughshod over the Vikings, but made the most of their opportunities and let the defense do the rest, sending the Vikings home.
- Median-home price: $642,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 2Q24: 4.90%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 63.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $164,099.71
- Average ticket cost: $124.80
- Stadium name: Northwest Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2020 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1991
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 20 to 1
1/14/25 update: Coming up: The Detroit Lions.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. It's unusual when a rookie quarterback has a strong enough season to even get his team to the playoffs, let alone win a road game against a higher-raked team. But that was the case this year, as Washington QB Jayden Daniels passed for 268 yards and two touchdowns and also had 13 rushes for another 36 yards. In what was a down-to-the-wire affair with Tampa Bay leading after three quarters, a fourth quarter Daniels TD lifted the Commanders into the lead; Tampa Bay tied it up late, but a no-time-left field goal by Zane Gonzales sealed the deal for Washington.
- Median-home price: $321,700
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.40%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 55.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $84,445.00
- Average ticket cost: $141.48
- Stadium name: Lambeau Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 22 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. Quarterback Jordan Love had a rough day, throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns. Still, it was a one-score game until halfway through the fourth quarter, but Philadelphia managed two field goals and Green Bay got no additional points to close the game.
Image source: Wikimedia Commons / Chris Rand
Sources:
- Median-home price: National Association of Realtors
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: National Association of Realtors
- Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, quarterly average
- Homeownership rate: Census Bureau
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: HSH.com
- Average ticket cost: Statista.com
- Stadium name: Google search results
- Last time in playoffs: pro-football-reference.com
- Last time in Super Bowl: pro-football-reference.com
- Current/Updated odds: FanDuel