Can this home price trend predict the next NFL Champion? Updated on:
- Introduction
- AFC 1 seed
- AFC 2 seed
- AFC 3 seed
- AFC 4 seed
- AFC 5 seed
- AFC 6 seed
- AFC 7 seed
- NFC 1 seed
- NFC 2 seed
- NFC 3 seed
- NFC 4 seed
- NFC 5 seed
- NFC 6 seed
- NFC 7 seed
- Bracket
- Sources
It’s that time again -- the start of a new year, snow storms, colder temperatures and the NFL playoffs. This year’s playoff teams are from a very diverse group of housing markets from all across the country.
There are an untold number of oddsmakers and prognosticators that purport to be able to pick the ultimate winner of the NFL's highest prize. But is there any specific relationship between home prices, mortgage rates and success in the NFL? Of course not. However, it's fun to forecast the winner of Super Bowl LIX based off certain housing market characteristics.
We first did this way back in 2013. Back then, we picked the Super Bowl winner based on which market had the highest average mortgage rates. Based on that criteria, our pick (the Seattle Seahawks) took home the Lombardi trophy. In 2014, we selected our winner based the metropolitan area market with the highest home prices in each head-to-head matchup. Ultimately, this predicted that New England would be the winner... which turned out to be correct, too! We then skipped a few years, then took another crack at it in the 2017-2018 season, when we incorporated the wild-card games, too.
At that time, we also changed up the methodology, too. For the 2018 playoffs, we employed third quarter 2016 to third quarter 2017 home price appreciation for existing single-family homes as a reference, swapping criteria from round to round.
Back in 2018, we started by selecting the winners of the Wildcard round by choosing markets which had higher home price appreciation over the last four quarters; for the Divisional round, we then choose markets with the lower year-over-year appreciation. For the Conference Championship round, we switched back to higher and will then picked the market with the lowest annual appreciation as the Super Bowl winner.
For the 2023-2024 playoffs, we reversed the above criteria, using a Lowest, Highest, Lowest, Highest cadence to determine the Lombardi Trophy winner. While the team the model picked didn't win, the winner did come from the AFC (which the model did pick) and the remaining team with the highest home price appreciation over the last year, so that's something.
Just to keep things interesting, we're going back to a more traditional, best-appreciation, winner-takes-all model this year, but if we employ the same back-and-forth arrangement as in 2023-2024, the low-high-low-high survivors making it to the big game are AFC #6 Pittsburgh versus NFC #5 Minneapolis, with Pittsburgh winning it all. Using the prior high-low-high-low method of selection? AFC #3 Baltimore takes the prize over NFC #2 Philadelphia.
For the 2024-2025 season, we'll consider the probable winner based solely on year-over-year home price appreciation from 3Q2023 to 3Q2024. Should the highest appreciation markets make it to the big game, the matchup would see the NFC #1 Detroit Lions facing the AFC #3 Buffalo Bills. Neither team has won a Super Bowl, but both won championships before the Super Bowl era. Still, Buffalo hasn't been to the big game in 31 years, and Detroit has never even been to one. If the matchup comes true, it'll be a game for the ages, and no matter who wins, it'll be history and redemption for a long-suffering franchise. Based upon our methodology this year, that'll be Buffalo.
As a matter of curiosity, if the matchup pitted lowest appreciation against lowest appreciation? Well, you would be looking at AFC #7 Denver versus NFC #3 Tampa Bay, with the Broncos taking all by virtue of a 2.7% home price decline over the last four quarters. Tampa Bay's home prices only slid by 1.2% over that period.
After each week's games are complete, we'll post a brief update here and on the slides for each team.
February 10, 2025 update:
It's all over, with the Lombardi Trophy going to the Philadelphia Eagles, who put on a dominant defensive display and capitalized on every Kansas City miscue. The final score of 40-22 made the game seem closer than it really was, but the outcome didn't ever seem in doubt. Congratulations to the Eagles.
While it wasn't the teams this year's model predicted, it is worth noting that the market with the higher home price appreciation did turn out to be the victor, as Philadelphia's 6% annual increase overcame Kansas City's 3.9%. See you next year!
January 27, 2025 update:
Championship Weekend featured the game no one expected and the game everyone wanted to see. In the end, Philadelphia was solidly efficient everywhere, taking advantage of Washington miscues. Saquon Barkley ran for three scores, Jalen Hurts looked like himself again, running for three TDs and throwing for another in what ended up being a rout over Jayden Daniels the Washington Commanders. In the nightcap, an AFC thriller went down to the wire in a one-score game throughout. An equal affair, Buffalo's inability to make two two-point conversions -- and Kansas City's ability to convert one -- ended up being the difference. Even so, there was time for a last minute drive by the Bills, but they couldn't convert on a key fourth down and are shuffling off to Buffalo rather than to New Orleans.
The outcome of this Championship weekend knocked out our model's big game winner, but if the higher-appreciation market should ultimately prevail our over the lower for the title, Philly 6% annual rise in home price will win out over KC's 3.90% gain.
January 21, 2025 update:
What a difference a round of games can make! The upstart (and lower-appreciation) Washington Commanders dropped the number one NFC seed Detroit Lions, knocking out one of our expected final game participants. Philadelphia's 6% appreciation overcame L.A.'s 5.6% in a one-score game, our expected champion Buffalo's 8.8% home-price increase was enough to eke out a victory over Baltimore's 5% gain, Kansas City's meager 3.9% increase was more than enough to overwhelm Houston's 0.8% annual increase in value. As with Wild Card Weekend, the market with the higher increase overcame that with the lower in a majority of the games.
January 14, 2025 update:
Our highest-home-price-appreciation-wins-out methodology picked five winners out of the first six games, including a road team victory. Home field advantage matters in the playoffs, and four of the first five games were won by the home squad, with only the Washington Commanders as road warriors. What should have been a home game for the Rams was a neutral site affair due to the wildfire tragedy in Los Angeles, but the Rams settled in as though it was still in Inglewood before a home crowd.
- Median-home price: $341,600
- Price increase,3Q23 to 3Q24: 3.90%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 66.6 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $88,865.57
- Average ticket cost: $131.81
- Stadium name: Arrowhead Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2023 season
- Current odds: 1/6/24 - 3.6 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 3.5 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/21/25 - 2.1 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/27/25 - 1.32 to 1
2/10/25 update: Eliminated.Even with all their winning in recent years, the Chiefs may or may not be a "dynasty". One thing for sure is that the quest for three consecutive NFL titles ended at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, who harassed Patrick Mahomes into a very sub-par day. It looks as though the Chiefs could use a little retooling, some better protection for their all-star QB and some defensive strengthening, but Andy Reid and company should be back in the thick of things again next year.
1/27/25 update: Moving on. It seemed to be the Chiefs m.o. for 2024-2025; just do enough to win. Single-score margins of victory were seen in 13 of their-now 17 wins this season. This was again the case in the AFC Championship, which ended up as a 3-point victory. The margin was the result of the inability of Buffalo to convert two two-point after touchdown tries and the Chiefs converting on the one they attempted. Otherwise, the stats between the two teams were nearly identical, although Buffalo was penalized for more yards. In the end, Mahomes and the Chiefs earned an opportunity to defend their title in hopes of becoming the first team to win back-to-back-to-back titles and enhance their "dynasty" label.
1/21/25 update: Moving on. Houston put up a spirited fight but not enough points, and Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce did their usual things, so a KC victory was never really in doubt. Houston actually managed more passing yards, rushing yards, plays and won the time of possession battle, but also had more penalties. The Chiefs were simply more efficient on both sides of the ball, with Kansas City's defense sacking Houston QB C.J. Stroud eight times.
- Median-home price: $283,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 8.80%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 61.1 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $82,090.25
- Average ticket cost: $101.64
- Stadium name: Highmark Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1993 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 6 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 5.5 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/21/25 - 2.6 to 1
1/27/25 update: Eliminated. If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best, and Buffalo has struggled to do just that. The Bills were solid everywhere and the equal of the Chiefs in almost every aspect of the game, but failing to convert two two-point conversion attempts while seeing Kansas City make theirs was the difference. Even so, the Bills had the ball for a final drive, where a field goal could have tied the game or a touchdown probably won it -- but Buffalo failed to convert on a key fourth-and-long, gave the ball back to the Chiefs, and started packing for a trip home.
1/21/25 update: Moving on. Buffalo started the game strong, but had to hang on in the second half. Josh Allen didn't throw very much or very far, but did manage to run for two touchdowns. Three turnovers by Baltimore were the difference, as fumbles and interceptions kept Lamar Jackson and the dynamic Ravens offense off the field. Even so, Baltimore had strong offensive numbers, driving down the field in a two-minute drill with a chance to tie it up late. The Ravens got the touchdown they needed to make it close, but a dropped two-point conversion attempt to tie the score meant Buffalo heads to Kansas City.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. After Denver opened the scoring in the first quarter, it was all Buffalo the rest of the way. Josh Allen and the Bills offense had a solid day, outgaining the Broncos nearly two-to-one, and Allen threw for two scores and James Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. The housing market with the highest appreciation crushed the metro with the lowest, as this year's methodology predicted.
- Median-home price: $426,600
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 69.0 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $111,062.16
- Average ticket cost: $120.27
- Stadium name: M&T Bank Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2012 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 7 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 4.7 to 1
1/21/25 update: Eliminated. The Bills rushed out to a solid halftime lead, but the Ravens kept after it all game, whittling down the gap. Offensively, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry both had solid games, but three turnovers did the Ravens in. Even so, a late fourth quarter drive could have tied the game, but a failed two-point conversion meant that the Ravens were done for the year.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. Baltimore came ready to play, putting up 21 points in the first half while blanking the Steelers. While QB Lamar Jackson had an efficient day, completing 16 of 21 passes and two TDs, Derrick Henry showed why the running game still matters, with his 26 carries good for 186 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh got two touchdown passes from Russell Wilson in the third quarter to make a bit of a game of it for a time.
- Median-home price: $324,800
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 0.80%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 61.1 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $99,375.91
- Average ticket cost: $117.45
- Stadium name: NRG Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: Never
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 50 to 1
1/21/25 update: Eliminated. If a team has more passing yards, more rushing yards, more total plays, greater time of possession (and so on) more than their foe, you would probably think they'd win with game. That wasn't the case for the Texans, who allowed eight sacks of C.J. Stroud, committed eight penalties and could muster only 14 points even with the better offensive metrics. The efficiency of Kansas City's experienced offense took advantage of every opportunity they got, and so it was back to Houston for the Texans.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. Los Angeles got the first scores of the game and led 6-0 after the first quarter on two field goals. After that, balanced contributions powered the Texans ahead for good, as C.J. Stroud threw a touchdown pass, running back Joe Mixon powered his way to 106 yards and a score, and Ka'imi Fairburn kicked three field goals. In our "highest appreciation wins out" method of selection this year, this was the only upset of Wildcard weekend, a Houston's 0.8% home price increase bested L.A.'s. 5.60%.
- Median-home price: $947,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 49.2 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $229,559.81
- Average ticket cost: $106.23
- Stadium name: SoFi Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1994
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. Quarterback Justin Herbert had a rough day of it, throwing four interceptions and just a lone touchdown. Trying to play catch-up to Houston for the entire second half meant little support from the running game, and Ladd McConkey caught nine passes for 197 of Herbert's 242 for the day. The Chargers' 20th ranked offense couldn't overcome Houston's 6th ranked defense, so it was the end of the season for L.A.
- Median-home price: $239,400
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 3.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 67.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $65,484.18
- Average ticket cost: $127.01
- Stadium name: Acrisure Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. It's usually a bad idea to get started late against a team like the Ravens, and Pittsburgh didn't get much going until after halftime. By them, the Steelers were down 21-0, and Russell Wilson's two TDs in the third quarter weren't enough to catch up. For the Steelers, it's one and done, and wait till next year.
- Median-home price: $654,600
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: -2.70%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 64.8 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $158,112.13
- Average ticket cost: $131.91
- Stadium name: Empower Field at Mile High
- Last time in playoffs: 2015 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2015
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 65 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. At least according to our "highest appreciation wins out" method for this year's playoffs, Denver's -2.7% over the past four quarters gave them the least chance of all the metros. Up against Buffalo's playoff-leading 8.8%, that was more than the case, Denver only managed 7 points, the fewest of any Wildcard weekend team, and lost by 24 points, the largest margin of defeat.
- Median-home price: $287,800
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 8.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 71.8 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $77,398.06
- Average ticket cost: $107.31
- Stadium name: Ford Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: Never*
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 3.1 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 3 to 1
1/21/25 update: Eliminated. Detroit went from number one to one and done in a game that had almost no defense to speak of. The over/under line for the game was already a fairly high 55.5 points; 86 were scored, and there were over 1,000 yards of total offense in the game. Detroit's defense got overwhelmed by the Commanders rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels, who passed for almost 300 yards and two TDs and ran for another 51, to boot. Washington's defense collected three interceptions and recovered a fumble, and the upset of one of our expected big game participants was on, as a market with lower home price appreciation toppled one with the highest of the NFC group.
* Won Championship in pre Super Bowl era.
- Median-home price: $390,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 6.00%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 69.4 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $108,084.39
- Average ticket cost: $139.01
- Stadium name: Lincoln Financial Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2022
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 7.5 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 4.5 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/21/25 - 1.75 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/27/25 - 1.12 to 1
2/10/25 update: Champions. A dominant defensive display from the NFL's #1 defense put Kansas City on its heels early and kept them there. Interceptions, fumble recoveries and sacks all took the Chiefs out of their game, and the Eagles capitalized on every opportunity they got, leading 24-0 at the end of the first half. By the end of the third quarter, the Chiefs showed a little life, but there was no coming back for KC. QB Jalen Hurts had a solid day, as did Saquon Barkley, but the star of the game was Philly's defensive unit... and defense wins championships.
1/27/25 update: Moving on. If was "Fly Eagles Fly" all day, as Phildelphia looked stronger and more balanced than they had been in months. QB Jalen Hurts ran for three TDs and threw for another, Saquon Barkley carried 15 times for 118 yards and three TDs of his own, and the Eagles scored the most points ever in a conference Championship game. The Philly defense recovered three Washington fumbles and captured an interception; the offense turned those opportunities into points, ending rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels and the Commanders surprising season.
1/21/25 update: Moving on. QB Jalen Hurts was 15 of 20, but only for 128 yards. How to put the Rams on their heels? Give the ball to Saquon Barkley! The Eagles running back carried the ball 26 times for 205 yards and two touchdowns. It was a one-score affair throughout the game. but Barkley's 78-yard run for a TD late in the fourth quarter widened the gap just enough so that Matt Stafford's Rams couldn't mount a full comeback. Stafford's 324 yards passing and two TDs were complemented by Kyren Williams 106 rushing yards, but that balance got blown away by Barkley's brilliant day.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. The Eagles jumped out to an early lead and were up 10-zip by the end of the first half. Coming back from missing three weeks, Philly QB Jalen Hurts had a quiet day but threw for two TDs, and RB Saquon Barkley ran for 119 yards on 25 carries. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love threw for three INTs and no touchdowns, but it was still a one-score game early in the fourth quarter, but two Philly field goals secured the win.
- Median-home price: $410,000
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: -1.20%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 70.4 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $105,450.33
- Average ticket cost: $124.43
- Stadium name: Raymond James Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl winner: 2020 season
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 22 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. It was the most competitive game of Wildcard weekend, tied at the half and back and forth until a time-running-out field goal by Zane Gonzales won it for Washington as the clock expired. Rookie Jayden Daniels had a good day, throwing 35 times and completing 24 for 286 yards and two TDS, besting Baker Mayfield's solid 15 for 18, 2 TD effort.
- Median-home price: $947,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.60%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 49.2 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $229,559.81
- Average ticket cost: $103.90
- Stadium name: SoFi Stadium*
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2021
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 35 to 1
1/21/25 update: Eliminated. It was a close, one-score game throughout, but L.A. could never do better than tie it up midway through the third quarter. Matt Stafford threw for more than 300 yards and the running game added another hundred, but it wasn't enough, as two lost fumbles meant more time for the Eagles offense. While containing Philly QB Jalen Hurts to a modest day, the Rams defense had no answers for running back Saquon Barkley, who torched them for 205 yards and two TDs, including a late 78-yard scramble that essentially sent Los Angeles home for the year.
1/14/25 update: Moving on. Matthew Stafford and the Rams may have been dislocated from their home base and fans, but came ready to play despite likely heavy hearts and worries for their home city. Rushing out to a 24-3 lead at the half forced the Vikings to play catch-up, and that didn't happen. The Vikings had an ineffective night against a solid Rams defense, which sacked QB Sam Darnold nine times, intercepted him once and cause him to fumble for a loss of possession, too.
*Wildcard weekend game moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
- Median-home price: $393,400
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 1.40%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 67.6 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $104,152.79
- Average ticket cost: $123.37
- Stadium name: U.S. Bank Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2022 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1976
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 14 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 15 to 1
1/14/25 update: Eliminated. Viking quarterback Sam Darnold struggled all night, was sacked nine times, intercepted once and fumbled for a loss of possession. That's usually more than enough to ensure a loss, and a loss it was, with the Vikings managing just a field goal and lone touchdown all night. The Rams didn't exactly run roughshod over the Vikings, but made the most of their opportunities and let the defense do the rest, sending the Vikings home.
- Median-home price: $642,500
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 2Q24: 4.90%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 63.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $164,099.71
- Average ticket cost: $124.80
- Stadium name: Northwest Stadium
- Last time in playoffs: 2020 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 1991
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 35 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/13/25 - 20 to 1
- Updated odds: 1/21/25 - 8.5 to 1
1/27/25 update: Eliminated. The balance and experience of Philadelphia was the undoing of Washington's surprising season. Rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels threw 48 times for 255 yards and a TD and ran for 48 yards and another score, but threw an interception and saw his offense lose three fumbles. The Eagles turned those miscues into scores, and the Washington defense had few solutions for Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkey, who accounted for seven touchdowns (6 rushing, 1 throwing) between them, giving up the most points ever in a conference Championship game. As such, it's "wait 'til next year" for Washington, who has nothing to be ashamed of after a terrific season.
1/21/25 update: Moving on. David slaying Goliath isn't all that unheard of in the NFL; it does happen. In this case, the metro area with a lower annual home-price increase powered by a rookie quarterback dropped the NFC leader out of the playoffs. In a game with no defense, the Commanders offense sparkled, with Jayden Daniels throwing for almost 300 yards and two TDs, plus rushing for 51 more; along with other contributors, the Commanders put up 45 points. Detroit managed to put up 31 points of their own, but trying to play catch-up all game saw Jared Goff throw three picks but only one TD. Both teams combined for more than 1,000 of total offense, so it wasn't exactly a defensive struggle. In the end, the upstart Commanders are headed to a showdown in Philly.
1/13/25 update: Moving on. It's unusual when a rookie quarterback has a strong enough season to even get his team to the playoffs, let alone win a road game against a higher-raked team. But that was the case this year, as Washington QB Jayden Daniels passed for 268 yards and two touchdowns and also had 13 rushes for another 36 yards. In what was a down-to-the-wire affair with Tampa Bay leading after three quarters, a fourth quarter Daniels TD lifted the Commanders into the lead; Tampa Bay tied it up late, but a no-time-left field goal by Zane Gonzales sealed the deal for Washington.
- Median-home price: $321,700
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: 5.40%
- Mortgage rate: 6.51 percent
- Homeownership rate: 55.9 percent
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: $84,445.00
- Average ticket cost: $141.48
- Stadium name: Lambeau Field
- Last time in playoffs: 2023 season
- Last time in Super Bowl: 2010
- Current odds: 1/6/25 - 22 to 1
1/13/25 update: Eliminated. Quarterback Jordan Love had a rough day, throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns. Still, it was a one-score game until halfway through the fourth quarter, but Philadelphia managed two field goals and Green Bay got no additional points to close the game.
Image source: Wikimedia Commons / Chris Rand
Sources:
- Median-home price: National Association of Realtors
- Price increase, 3Q23 to 3Q24: National Association of Realtors
- Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, quarterly average
- Homeownership rate: Census Bureau
- Required salary to afford median-priced home: HSH.com
- Average ticket cost: Statista.com
- Stadium name: Google search results
- Last time in playoffs: pro-football-reference.com
- Last time in Super Bowl: pro-football-reference.com
- Current/Updated odds: FanDuel