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Another spring, same story. Here's an update to our discussion of What's holding back the housing market?

Another spring, same story. Here's an update to our discussion of What's holding back the housing market?

Today's Mortgage Rates - 03/27/2025

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Mortgage Rates Mixed This Week

Mortgage rates either went down slightly or up slightly this week, depending on your choice of term.

Freddie Mac reported today that the average offered interest rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) declined by two basis points (0.02%) this week, settling back to 6.65%, right where it was two weeks ago.

Conversely, average offered rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages firmed a bit, rising by six basis points (0.06%) to 5.89%. Like its longer-term sibling, this average has barely changed over the last four weeks.

A 5/1 ARM might offer a homebuyer a lower-cost alternative to a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, and the difference in rate between 30-year FRMs and 5-year hybrid ARMs shrank slightly this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that the initial fixed interest rate on a hybrid 5-year ARM rose by five basis points (0.05%), moving up to 5.89%. This tightened the gap in rate compared to a 30-year FRM to seventy-six basis points (0.76%). A three-quarter percent differential in rate may be considerable enough to entice some early spring homebuyers to select an ARM as their choice of financing, as reasonable savings can be had, at least in the first five years of the loan.

Investors continue to try to figure out what changing trade and fiscal policies mean for the economy, both near-term and long. It appears that this week the focus has returned to inflation concerns. For much of this week, and despite lower long-term mortgage rates, the influential yield on the 10-year Treasury has pressed higher all week, making it very unlikely that mortgage rates will be able to hold present levels for very long.

As we discussed in last week's MarketTrends newsletter, the "hard" data for the economy -- actual economic reports from various sources -- is still pretty fair. That said, most of it is backward-looking by a month or more, and much of the current "soft" data -- sentiment surveys, opinions regarding economic trends, recession forecasts -- have suggested a darkening outlook for the period ahead.

It's not clear which of these diverging observations will prove correct, but it is true that a sustained poor outlook can influence the borrowing and spending habits of both businesses and consumers alike, and such behavior would start to be seen in the hard data at some point. For now, significant drivers of the economy such as consumer spending and labor conditions remain okay and may be able to do so despite rising headwinds.

With the firming in underlying yields, mortgage rates have or will shortly firm up again, probably moving back to late February levels. Fortunately, that's not very far from where they presently stand.

Each week in HSH's MarketTrends newsletter, we track and discuss economic conditions that affect mortgage rates and their impact on housing markets and consumers. Read the most recent edition of MarketTrends or subscribe for email delivery.

Week 30-year-Fixed 15-year-Fixed
03/27 6.650% 5.890%
03/20 6.670% 5.830%
03/13 6.650% 5.800%
03/06 6.630% 5.790%
02/27 6.760% 5.940%
02/20 6.850% 6.040%
02/13 6.870% 6.090%
02/06 6.890% 6.050%
01/30 6.950% 6.120%
01/23 6.960% 6.160%
01/16 7.040% 6.270%
01/09 6.930% 6.140%

Mortgage Choices at a Glance

Loan type/terms Fixed 30 years Fixed 15 years/
20 Years
Hybrid ARM Traditional ARM Balloon Mortgage
Rate changes
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
  • Usually after fixed period of 3, 5, 7 or 10 years
  • After that, annual change typical
  • Fully variable
  • Typically changing at one-year intervals
  • Some have shorter change intervals
  • Never; Fully fixed for entire term
Benefits
  • Low, stable payment
  • Usually easiest qualification
  • Stable payments
  • Builds equity faster
  • Lower total interest costs than 30-year term
  • Lower rates than fully fixed-rate mortgage
  • Can sometimes borrow larger loan amount for same income
  • Can have lowest interest rates
  • Qualification may not depend upon today's interest rate
  • Often has lower interest rate/monthly payment over balloon period than fixed rate
  • Similar to hybrid ARM
Drawbacks/Risks
  • Can have highest total interest cost over time
  • User may "buy" more rate stability than actually needed, increasing cost
  • Requires higher income to qualify
  • Less affordable monthly payment
  • Funds commited to payment cannot be used elsewhere
  • Stable payment for a number of years, then unpredictable
  • Rates can jump by as much as 6 percentage points at first adjustment
  • Payments fluctuate at each rate change
  • Unpredictable, rates can change as much as 2 percentage points at each adjustment
  • Loan fully due and payable when balloon period ends
  • Must be paid off or refinanced in unknown market conditions
Alternative strategy
  • Consider Hybrid ARM with appropriate fixed period
  • Consider 30-year term and prepaying loan to preserve cash-flow flexibility
  • Consider Fixed rate mortgage or longest possible fixed period, if loan hold period not known
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ameliorate rate and payment risks for a given period
  • Consider Hybrid ARM to ensure continued loan availability
These may be useful for...
  • Purchasing a home
  • First-time homebuyers
  • Refinancing to improve cash flow/lower payment
  • Refinancing to lower total interest cost
  • Retiring mortgage more quickly
  • Building or rebuilding equity more quickly
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is seven years or shorter, and where borrower can handle increase in monthly payments
  • Purchasing or refinancing when interest rates are near top of cycle, and are likely to fall, or sale or refinance is anticipated within three years
  • Purchasing or refinancing when time horizon is three years or longer and home will be sold prior to end of balloon period
Consider if
  • Buying or refinancing a home and planning on owning for longer than 10 years
  • Buying second home
  • Refinancing to build equity
  • Paying off mortgage before life event (retirement, etc)
  • Buying a home and expect to move before fixed period ends, or know income will rise to offset payment risk, even in worst-case scenario
  • Buying or refinancing when income can handle frequent payment changes and worst-case scenario for rates over a four-year period
  • Buying a home and expect to move before balloon period ends, or have resources to pay off mortgage if refinance not available
When shopping, ask about
  • "Full cost" vs. "No cost" refinances, prepaying loan to shorten term if desired
  • If 20-year term makes payment too high, whether 25-year term is available
  • Interest rate caps, for first and subsequent adjustments, worst-case scenario
  • A history of the Index the loan is keyed off, margin and caps
  • Whether or not there is any built-in refinancing option when the balloon period ends
Useful tools & resources

Latest Mortgage Rate Analysis

HSH's longer-range outlook for mortgage rates, where we review our last forecast,discuss current market influences and provide our expectations for mortgage rates over the next nine weeks.

Mortgage Calculators

Mortgage rates and more

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